Q. Now that we've had some time to look back at it, how much effect do you think this spring's cold weather had on the industry?
A. There is no doubt that multiple areas of the country have been adversely affected by the weather this spring.
As most readers know better than I, the full extent of that effect will take some time to assess. The seedlings/young plants that had new growth (due to early warming before the freeze) are the most vulnerable and their damage is the most immediately notable.
Trauma on larger plant material may take longer to determine and, of course, can be further affected or diminished by weather yet to come.
There are bright spots, too. The California local market has had an excellent spring, after multiple bad years. Parts of the South have had a good to better time as well.
Q. Are there any regions that you think were more affected than others?
A. The Mid-South (Carolinas to Oklahoma) had some pockets of hard freeze and are the most frequently cited to have problems. That said, 16 years at ANLA has taught me enough about microclimates, protection efforts and plain old luck to avoid general conclusions about uniform, widespread damage.
These variables are at the foundation of our industry's ethic of individual trust between plant seller and buyer. It also should allow for some forgiveness when legitimately good intentions still turn out bad and compromises for the sake of long-term relationships are the result.
I hope these qualities of trust and forgiveness, very rare in most fields of commerce, continue to be hallmarks in our industry.
Q. Did the weather slam shut this year's spring gardening window, or do you think it was just pushed to later in the season?
A. Not completely, rather it has had a significant effect on how wide open that window can be cranked, at least with respect to "normal" seasonal business.
Usually, when there is plant damage in our grower fields, there's also plant damage in the landscape. Damage in the landscape can yield additional sales and replacement downstream that helps offset the marketplace loss or slowdown on the front end of the season.
Q. Could the biggest effect of the storm be on follow-up orders? If retailers don't make big second orders from growers this spring, could that create a backlog of sorts?
A. Not necessarily. I do believe that there is a significant factor in the supply chain that began some years ago, but is still underestimated or its full effect misinterpreted. That factor is the emergence of containerized plant material.
Moving from field harvesting to can shipping has "liberalized" the availability of plant material. This loosening has both expanded some niche markets and localized others.
With good sales management and grower alliances, could this more free-wheeling marketplace take out some of the year-to-year volatility of plant sales? The other potential leveler is the growth of the industry's landscape distribution sector that could influence follow-up and second-order patterns.
Q. Does this weather affect growers who are less diversified more than those who grow and sell a more wide range of product?
A. Well, that depends on which plants you choose to grow. Todd, if I had the answer to that question, I would be a nurseryman full time and retire early, instead of sitting behind a desk in Washington, D.C., trying to answer questions like these.
Q. Do you think weather events like this lead growers to rethink some of their longstanding practices?
A. Yes, I believe it should, at least for growers who want to create the future instead of just enduring it.
Regardless of cause, statistics suggest that we are heading into a time or cycle of more extreme weather. That means added risk (or reward) in growing the product and added risk (or reward) in getting rid of it once it's grown. I see innovations in the industry that can address this challenge (or opportunity).
ANLA is launching a new strategic initiative focusing on sustainability and best practices -- certain to include consideration of factors like changing weather, water availability and labor practices. Armed with such information, association members can make lemonade, even out of lemons that have been frozen.