Even though there is still a great deal of employment uncertainty across the country, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and many economists are optimistic about the country's economic outlook this year. In November, Greenspan's prediction for a job revival didn't indicate specifically when it would begin, but his comments implied it would occur relatively soon.
More employers are indicating that they plan to add workers during this first quarter. For the first time in five years, staffing company Manpower Inc. (www.manpower.com) reports that U.S. employers are expressing an increase in hiring expectations between the fourth quarter of last year and the employment outlook for this year. Of the 16,000 U.S. employers polled by Manpower, 20 percent said they planned to boost hiring levels for the first three months of the year, while 13 percent expect a slower pace. Sixty-one percent of employers expect to offer the same number of jobs as last quarter.
The hiring picture during the first quarter looks brighter for all parts of the country. Manpower found employers in the West expect the most hiring activity. Those in the Midwest were the least optimistic. In the Northeast job applicants are expected to have more employment opportunities than they've had in three years.
Leisure time shortage
While the employment outlook is good news, there is a growing movement among employees to resist the increasing demand to work longer hours without extra pay. Part of this trend to sacrifice personal time has been caused by improvements in technology, including increased use of e-mails and cell phones.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that for the third quarter of 2003, productivity increased at an annual rate of 8.1 percent. Greenspan credited the increased efficiency to both short- and long-term factors, including response to competition, retrenchment by some companies and better use of technology. He speculated that more companies are close to maxing out their efficiencies and have fewer technology improvements from which to choose. He also believes more companies will do more hiring this year because many have significantly reduced their inventories and will need additional labor to meet rising consumer demand and spending.
A study released in September by the International Labour Office (www.ilo.org) showed that U.S. productivity accelerated in 2002, surpassing Europe and Japan in annual output per worker for the first substantial period since World War II. ILO indicated part of the difference in output per worker was due to Americans working longer hours than their European counterparts. Americans worked an average of 1,815 hours in 2002 compared to major European countries, where hours worked ranged from 1,300 to 1,800. In Japan, hours worked dropped to about the same level as in the United States.
Expect to hear more about the leisure time shortage during this election year. Last year the Senate passed a resolution to designate October as National Work and Family Month. Also, presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., proposed a paid family leave program for workers.
An increasing loss of leisure time could have a major impact on the floriculture industry. Time-starved workers are going to be much more particular about how they use their free time and how they spend their discretionary income.