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Will the U.S. run out of workers?

Heading into 2006, both consumers and economists were pumped up about the economic outlook for the year. Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in November, continued to improve further in December. Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said that consumer confidence had risen to its highest level since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast last August. Stable gasoline prices and improved job growth helped consumers to feel more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005, Franco said.

"Consumers are confident that the economy will continue to expand in 2006," Franco said.

Economists, too, are feeling bullish about the economy. A survey of 50 business economists by Blue Chip Economic Indicators found they expected the economy to grow by 3.4 percent this year. Not as high as 2005's 3.6 percent or 2004's 4.4 percent, but certainly still a decent increase. Economists expected lower inflation, improving job growth and increases in long-awaited wage gains to lift consumer spending. This is particularly important to the floriculture industry, which depends on consumer nondiscretionary dollars.

Impact of fewer workers

One of the biggest challenges facing U.S. businesses will be a severe shortage of workers, said U.S. Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Thomas Donohue. He said restrictive immigration and visa policies along with the retirement of 77 million baby boomers will hinder our country's ability to stay competitive in a global economy. He said it's time to get serious about securing the workers that are needed through immigration reform.

As the U.S. continues to face stiff competition from other countries, increases in productivity will help to keep the economy growing. However, Donohue, said what also is needed is an adequate number of taxpaying workers who will pay for the entitlement programs of our aging society.

Donohue expects the ability of U.S. companies to find adequate workers will be hindered even more if Congress continues to focus increasing resources solely on border enforcement and antiterrorism.

Government authorities are already taking steps to crackdown on illegal immigrants. USA Today reports Immigration and Customs Enforcement plans to deploy 52 teams this year to track down over 500,000 illegal immigrants who have not followed deportation orders. Last year only 17 ICE fugitive-hunting teams were operating. ICE will receive about $75 million over two years to finance the teams.

Donohue said some of the recent illegal immigration legislation being considered by Congress does nothing to address the broader issues of expanding temporary worker programs and how to deal with the 10-11 million undocumented workers already in the United States. This legislation, he said, contains provisions that would turn employers into criminals and employees into felons.

The Chamber of Commerce will be working with lawmakers to draft a bill that provides U.S. businesses with the workers they need while maintaining America's legacy of being a welcoming country. Attendees to this year's Society of American Florists' Congressional Action Days, March 20-21, in Washington, D.C., will have an opportunity to voice their thoughts and concerns about immigration reform directly to their representatives.

For more: Society of American Florists, 1601 Duke St., Alexandria, VA 22314; (800) 336-4743; www.safnow.org.

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